The most important factor in determining the blooming time of cherry trees is the geographical location. Basically, the milder the climate, the earlier the blossoms open.
On Japan's southern, subtropical islands of Okinawa, cherry blossoms open as early as January, while on the northern island of Hokkaido, they bloom as late as May. In most major cities in between, including Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka, the cherry blossom season typically takes place in early April.
Furthermore, the blooming time of cherry trees differs from year to year depending on the weather. If the weather during the months and weeks preceding the cherry blossom season is mild, blossoms will open early. If it is cold, blossoms will open later. From year to year, the start of the blooming season can vary by as much as two weeks.
How long do they bloom?
The cherry blossom season is relatively short. Full bloom (mankai) is usually reached within about one week after the opening of the first blossoms (kaika). Another week later, the blooming peak is over and the blossoms are falling from the trees. Strong wind and rain can cut the blooming season even shorter.
Cherry blossom forecasts
Every year, weather services and the media, including japan-guide.com, closely follow the so called "cherry blossom front" as it slowly moves northward. Note that the front indicates the opening of the first blossoms (kaika) rather than the arrival of full bloom (mankai).
Of course, not every tree in a city opens on the same day, as trees in shadowy places, for example, bloom several days later than trees in sunny places. For this reason, a set of representative sample trees is selected to define the date of kaika (the opening of the first blossoms) for a whole city. In Tokyo, the sample trees are located at Yasukuni Shrine.
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